UN Climate Conference from a Delegate’s perspective #2

Written by: Koen Vanderschelden

Reading time: 5 minutes

COP30 in Belém: A Turning Point for the Fossil Fuel Era?

COP30 in Belém was always going to be symbolic. Held in the Amazon, one of the world’s most important carbon sinks, it placed a global spotlight on the tension between nature protection, economic development, and the political realities of the energy transition. Expectations were high: would this be the COP where the world finally united around a clear pathway away from fossil fuels? Or would it show, once again, the limits of multilateral climate politics?

The answer, as often happens in the climate process, lies somewhere in between. In this blog, I reflect on what COP30 achieved compared to last year, what the priorities now look like for COP31 in Türkiye, why young people must stay engaged, and my personal impressions after following the talks and announcements in Belém.

What Was Achieved Compared to Last COP?

Compared to COP29, COP30 delivered progress in some areas, stagnation in others, and a few unexpected political dynamics that will shape the next negotiating cycle.

A sharpened global debate on fossil fuels

The central political question—how fast and how fairly the world should transition away from coal, oil, and gas—was more prominent at COP30 than ever before. Even without a dramatic breakthrough, the negotiations made clear that fossil fuel discussions are no longer peripheral: they are becoming the core battleground of climate diplomacy.

Several countries pushed for stronger language on “phasing out” or “phasing down” fossil fuels, while others resisted, arguing for national sovereignty, energy security, and the importance of hydrocarbons for economic development. This tension isn’t new, but at COP30 it became more structured, more explicit, and more aligned with the scientific signal coming from global stocktake reports.

Momentum around transition finance

One of the most notable shifts compared to the last COP was the focus on financing energy transitions, especially in countries dependent on mining and fossil fuel revenues. Several multilateral banks and coalitions announced expanded financing packages for:

• Just Energy Transition (JET) mechanisms
• Coal retirement and repurposing
• Renewable energy expansion
• Mine rehabilitation and workforce transition programs
• …

While not transformative on their own, these commitments indicate a growing financial ecosystem willing to support countries navigating the economic and social consequences of moving beyond fossil fuels.

Strengthened coalitions on forests and nature

Given that COP30 took place in the Amazon, a substantial number of announcements focused on forest protection, illegal mining crackdowns, and land restoration. Many of these represent a step up from COP29, with broader coalitions and more predictable funding flows. The link between illegal mining, deforestation, and carbon loss was highlighted more sharply than in previous years.

Negotiations: stability without breakthrough

COP30 avoided political collapse and succeeded in delivering a set of decisions that maintained the negotiation process. But many issues, especially fossil fuel language, transition finance, and equity principles, remain deeply contested. If COP29 was about establishing new frameworks, COP30 was about confronting the political obstacles that stand between ambition and implementation. In that sense, progress was modest but real.

What Will Be the Focus for the Next COP?

Looking ahead to COP31 in Antalya, several themes are already emerging.

Fossil fuel transition—more explicit, more unavoidable

COP31 will likely carry forward the unresolved debate on how to reference fossil fuels in the official decisions. Whether Parties land on “phaseout,” “phasedown,” or something else entirely, the issue will sit at the center of global climate politics. Türkiye’s presidency will have the delicate task of balancing perspectives from energy-producing regions—including the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of Africa—while encouraging global convergence.

Transition pathways for coal, oil, and gas economies

Countries that rely heavily on extractive industries will push for clearer transition roadmaps, including finance for:

• economic diversification
• skills development and job transitions
• rehabilitation of mining sites
• community-centered transition plans

COP31 will need to advance these discussions in a way that protects workers while accelerating emissions reductions.

Critical minerals and the geopolitics of supply chains

As the world moves toward renewables, electric mobility, and battery storage, demand for critical minerals—lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earths—continues to rise. COP31 will likely see deeper conversations about:

• sustainable mining standards
• local value-addition and processing
• supply chain transparency
• environmental safeguards
• indigenous rights and land protection

These issues gained more visibility at COP30 but will grow even larger next year.

Laying the groundwork for COP32 in Ethiopia

COP32 will be held in Africa, a continent simultaneously rich in minerals, highly vulnerable to climate change, and full of potential for renewable energy expansion. What happens in Türkiye will strongly influence the narrative leading into Ethiopia—particularly around fairness, finance, and development rights.

Why Is It Still Important for Young People to Get Involved?

In every climate conference I’ve attended or followed, one fact stands out: young people are often the only group speaking with both scientific clarity and moral urgency.

The energy transition will define the future job market

Whether it’s renewable energy, critical mineral supply chains, energy efficiency, or circular technologies, young people will be the workforce—and innovators—of the transition. Being part of the climate conversation today shapes the opportunities of tomorrow.

Youth push for long-term thinking

Governments are elected on short cycles. Fossil fuel commitments often extend decades. Young people remind decision-makers that climate policy is not about the next election. It’s about the next century.

Social justice remains a youth priority

Mining, fossil fuel extraction, and energy transition projects have profound impacts on local communities. Youth movements keep equity, human rights, and environmental integrity at the center of the debate.

Climate fatigue is real, but youth momentum counters it

The world is tired: tired of slow negotiations, tired of climate disasters, tired of political polarization. But youth voices continue to bring energy, creativity, and pressure that keeps the movement alive.

My Personal Impression: A COP Caught Between Two Eras

If I had to sum up COP30 in a single idea, it would be this: we are living through the final chapters of the fossil fuel era, but the world has not yet agreed on how to write the ending.

Walking through the venue in Belém, I often felt as though two parallel COPs were happening: Inside the negotiation rooms, discussions were technical, political, and cautious. Every word on fossil fuels was bracketed. Every paragraph on finance was contested. The sense of global division was palpable. Outside the negotiations, the energy transition felt real and unstoppable.

Panels on renewables, green hydrogen, electric mobility, and mine rehabilitation were vibrant and forward-looking. Countries and companies showcased pilot projects that were already delivering results. Young innovators were presenting solutions that did not exist five years ago.

This contrast between political hesitation and societal momentum defines the climate era we are living in. I left Belém feeling both disappointed and hopeful: disappointed because negotiations still move too slowly, especially given the scale of the challenge; hopeful because the world outside negotiations is moving faster than ever toward cleaner, fairer, more resilient systems.

The Amazon, with all its beauty and fragility, reminded every participant of what is at stake. But it also served as a symbol of possibility: that even in complex environments, regeneration is possible.

As we look toward COP31 in Türkiye and COP32 in Ethiopia, I hope the courage shown by civil society, youth, scientists, and innovators will finally inspire political leaders to act with the ambition history requires. Because the world cannot afford another decade of hesitation.

I’m Koen Vanderschelden, 29 year old policy advisor at the cabinet of a deputy mayor in Ghent, my hometown. At the local government, I’m working on the policies regarding inclusion, integration, accessibility, and anti-discrimination. Outside of my job, I’ve served on various advisory boards, I’m an active member of a film club, and I co-founded an online magazine. My work is driven by a deep commitment to building a fairer society and improving collective well-being through progressive and inclusive initiatives.

I hold a degree in psychology from Ghent University also studied at UFSC in Florianópolis, Brazil, and the UvA, the University of Amsterdam. In Brazil I learned Portuguese and developed a strong interest in Brazilian culture and politics.

For CoSE, I will go to the UN COP in Belém.